Check to make sure you're not being blocked by any CSRF or XSS protections the browser may have in place with your full-paths in the source.
To get the url for your SWF, put it in your app/webroot/img folder,
then use $html->image("settlement_player.swf") as the url in your embed tags.
Also, if you can allow the Javascript, I would recommend using SWFObject ( http://blog.deconcept.com/swfobject/ ) to embed flash content, as you can do plugin detection (and version detection), and avoid the "Active Content" warning in IE. Embed the flash file that will work in both IE and Mozilla based browsers without javascript. You'll need to set a width and height to the object either through CSS or in the attributes.
$html->url('/flash/'.$file_name); would point to the flash folder in app/webroot folder.
Last option which worked for me (kind of hackie) use absolute URLs.
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